Ensembles of probability estimation trees for customer churn prediction

Customer churn prediction is one of the most, important elements tents of a company's Customer Relationship Management, (CRM) strategy In tins study, two strategies are investigated to increase the lift. performance of ensemble classification models, i.e (1) using probability estimation trees (PETs) instead of standard decision trees as base classifiers; and (n) implementing alternative fusion rules based on lift weights lot the combination of ensemble member's outputs Experiments ale conducted lot font popular ensemble strategics on five real-life chin n data sets In general, the results demonstrate how lift performance can be substantially improved by using alternative base classifiers and fusion tides However: the effect vanes lot the (Idol cut ensemble strategies lit particular, the results indicate an increase of lift performance of (1) Bagging by implementing C4 4 base classifiets. (n) the Random Subspace Method (RSM) by using lift-weighted fusion rules, and (in) AdaBoost, by implementing both

The impact of customer-specific marketing expenses on customer retention and customer profitability

We study the effects of customer-specific marketing expenses on customer retention and customer profitability in a business-to-business setting. Using data from a company providing hygiene services, we look at the impact of a hitherto unstudied type of expense targeted at individual customer relationships: the offering of free equipment to customers. The data allow tracking the activities performed in more than 4,500 customer relationships over a period of 4 years. Retention rates are higher for customers targeted with free equipment, but this effect results from an interaction with customer size. First-order dynamic panel data analyses show that the impact of targeted marketing expenses on customer dollar profit is positive for large customers, but there is no effect for smaller customers. Thus, targeted marketing expenses seem to be a tool for relationship maintenance rather than customer development: they help in retaining large customers that generate more profit, but they do not seem to work in developing new customers into larger, more profitable ones

Alleviating poverty through Islamic microfinance: factors and measures of financial performance, and roles of Islamic values and financial policies

Indonesia has a strong presence of microfinance sector with the number of Islamic Microfinance Institutions (IMFIs) estimated to be around 5,000 currently. Microfinance is an effective tool in alleviating poverty in Indonesia due to the limited access to financial services by the poor who accounted for approximately 96 million Indonesians (or 37% of the total population), living on less than USD 1.90 a day. In the absence of collateral and steady income, the poor are considered too risky to be given credit facilities by the formal financial services providers and living in remote areas has also limited their access to formal financial services. This study aims to examine the poverty alleviation efforts from the perspective of the IMFIs in view of their direct involvement in the process and having rich information about financial issues facing the borrowers. The managers also understand about financial inclusion agenda as well as financial guidelines and regulations issued by the relevant authorities. A total of 34 managers of Baitulmaal Wa Tamwil (BMTs), which registered under the Sharia Cooperative Centre (INKOPSYAH) are taken as respondents from the Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Tangerang and Bekasi (JABODETABEK) areas. The first instrument was a survey questionnaire, and the second one was an in-depth interview to outline data related to the model design. The findings of this research are expected to contribute to better decision-making for the BMTs to further enhance its role in alleviating poverty. The findings also elaborate several dimensions to improving financial inclusion among the poor including providing financial services, implementing Islamic principles, significant policies, community-based framework concept and training financial education. This research highlights the need for a variety of strategies to warrant success of poverty alleviation efforts by BMT

Orientation of oblique airborne image sets - Experiences from the ISPRS/Eurosdr benchmark on multi-platform photogrammetry

During the last decade the use of airborne multi camera systems increased significantly. The development in digital camera technology allows mounting several mid- or small-format cameras efficiently onto one platform and thus enables image capture under different angles. Those oblique images turn out to be interesting for a number of applications since lateral parts of elevated objects, like buildings or trees, are visible. However, occlusion or illumination differences might challenge image processing. From an image orientation point of view those multi-camera systems bring the advantage of a better ray intersection geometry compared to nadir-only image blocks. On the other hand, varying scale, occlusion and atmospheric influences which are difficult to model impose problems to the image matching and bundle adjustment tasks. In order to understand current limitations of image orientation approaches and the influence of different parameters such as image overlap or GCP distribution, a commonly available dataset was released. The originally captured data comprises of a state-of-the-art image block with very high overlap, but in the first stage of the so-called ISPRS/EUROSDR benchmark on multi-platform photogrammetry only a reduced set of images was released. In this paper some first results obtained with this dataset are presented. They refer to different aspects like tie point matching across the viewing directions, influence of the oblique images onto the bundle adjustment, the role of image overlap and GCP distribution. As far as the tie point matching is concerned we observed that matching of overlapping images pointing to the same cardinal direction, or between nadir and oblique views in general is quite successful. Due to the quite different perspective between images of different viewing directions the standard tie point matching, for instance based on interest points does not work well. How to address occlusion and ambiguities due to different views onto objects is clearly a non-solved research problem so far. In our experiments we also confirm that the obtainable height accuracy is better when all images are used in bundle block adjustment. This was also shown in other research before and is confirmed here. Not surprisingly, the large overlap of 80/80% provides much better object space accuracy – random errors seem to be about 2-3fold smaller compared to the 60/60% overlap. A comparison of different software approaches shows that newly emerged commercial packages, initially intended to work with small frame image blocks, do perform very well

Is Large Lepton Mixing Excluded?

The original \bnum -(or $\bar{\nu}_{\tau}$-) energy spectrum from the gravitational collapse of a star has a larger average energy than the spectrum for \bnue since the opacity of \bnue exeeds that of \bnum (or $\nu_{\tau}$). Flavor neutrino conversion, \bnue $\leftrightarrow$ \bnum, induced by lepton mixing results in partial permutation of the original \bnue and \bnum spectra. An upper bound on the permutation factor, $p \leq 0.35$ (99$\%$ CL) is derived using the data from SN1987A and the different models of the neutrino burst. The relation between the permutation factor and the vacuum mixing angle is established, which leads to the upper bound on this angle. The excluded region, $\sin^2 2\theta > 0.7 - 0.9$, covers the regions of large mixing angle solutions of the solar neutrino problem: ``just-so" and, partly, MSW, as well as part of region of $\nu_{e} - \nu_{\mu}$ oscillation space which could be responsible for the atmospheric muon neutrino deficit. These limits are sensitive to the predicted neutrino spectrum and can be strengthened as supernova models improve.Comment: 20 pages, TeX file. For hardcopy with figures contact [email protected]. Institute for Advanced Study number AST 93/1

Value of EUS in Determining Curative Resectability in Reference to CT and FDG-PET: The Optimal Sequence in Preoperative Staging of Esophageal Cancer?

Background: The separate value of endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS), multidetector computed tomography (CT), and18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) in the optimal sequence in staging esophageal cancer has not been investigated adequately. Methods: The staging records of 216 consecutive operable patients with esophageal cancer were reviewed blindly. Different staging strategies were analyzed, and the likelihood ratio (LR) of each module was calculated conditionally on individual patient characteristics. A logistic regression approach was used to determine the most favorable staging strategy. Results: Initial EUS results were not significantly related to the LRs of initial CT and FDG-PET results. The positive LR (LR+) of EUS-fine-needle aspiration (FNA) was 4, irrespective of CT and FDG-PET outcomes. The LR+ of FDG-PET varied from 13 (negative CT) to 6 (positive CT). The LR+ of CT ranged from 3-4 (negative FDG-PET) to 2-3 (positive FDG-PET). Age, histology, and tumor length had no significant impact on the LRs of the three diagnostic tests. Conclusions: This study argues in favor of PET/CT rather than EUS as a predictor of curative resectability in esophageal cancer. EUS does not correspond with either CT or FDG-PET. LRs of FDG-PET were substantially different between subgroups of negative and positive CT results and vice versa

Toward a theory of repeat purchase drivers for consumer services

The marketing discipline’s knowledge about the drivers of service customers’ repeat purchase behavior is highly fragmented. This research attempts to overcome that fragmented state of knowledge by making major advances toward a theory of repeat purchase drivers for consumer services. Drawing on means–end theory, the authors develop a hierarchical classification scheme that organizes repeat purchase drivers into an integrative and comprehensive framework. They then identify drivers on the basis of 188 face-to-face laddering interviews in two countries (USA and Germany) and assess the drivers’ importance and interrelations through a national probability sample survey of 618 service customers. In addition to presenting an exhaustive and coherent set of hierarchical repeat-purchase drivers, the authors provide theoretical explanations for how and why drivers relate to one another and to repeat purchase behavior. This research also tests the boundary conditions of the proposed framework by accounting for different service types. In addition to its theoretical contribution, the framework provides companies with specific information about how to manage long-term customer relationships successfully

Exploring CRM effectiveness: an institutional theory perspective

This study identifies the potential contribution that institutional theory can make to understanding the success of marketing practices. Based on institutional theory, we argue that the effectiveness of marketing practices decreases when firms are motivated to adopt such practices under the influence of institutional pressures originating in firms' environments. However, alignment between a practice and a firm's marketing strategy may buffer against these negative effects. We apply these insights to the case of customer relationship management (CRM). CRM is considered an important way to enhance customer loyalty and firm performance, but it has also been criticized for being expensive and for not living up to expectations. Empirical data from 107 organizations confirm that, in general, adopting CRM for mimetic motives is likely to result in fewer customer insights as a result of using this practice. Our study suggests that institutional theory has much to offer to the investigation of the effectiveness of marketing practices